The public hasn't learned that businesses don't pay taxes: only people do. They're confused, and this makes an adviser's job all the harder.
He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass.
To qualify as a recession, economic activity must decline in an absolute sense; a mere slowdown in real growth is not enough.
We're not very good at forecasting, and we don't know how to measure the impact of economic policy.
If you have to forecast, forecast often.
If we're going to forecast the business cycle, surely it is a good idea to know the business cycle. Sounds reasonable, but it's not that easy.
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know when and in which direction!
Forecasting is a maddening occupation. It is always fascinating and exciting and rewarding. yet it is also regularly exasperating and infuriating, occasionally even deranging.
The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver.
There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old saw puts it, is that the future lies ahead.
In a sense, there are as many forecasting methods as there are forecasters. But I would argue that most projections are derived from two major methods: macro-econometric models and eclectic judgment.
There is no such thing as a riskless hedge against inflation.
For a politician, the long term is between now and the next election.
