What you want to watch are the lenders, not the borrowers. The borrowers will always be willing to take a great deal for themselves. It's up to the lenders to show restraint, and when they lose it, watch out.
'Ick investing' means taking a special analytical interest in stocks that inspire a first reaction of 'ick.' I tend to become interested in stocks that by their very names or circumstances inspire unwillingness - and an 'ick' accompanied by a wrinkle of the nose on the part of most investors to delve any further.
At one point, I recognized that Warren Buffett, though he had every advantage in learning from Ben Graham, did not copy Ben Graham but, rather, set out on his own path and ran money his way, by his own rules... I also immediately internalized the idea that no school could teach someone how to be a great investor.
In June 2005, mortgage rates were at 40-year lows, and risk premiums on mortgage securities were at all-time lows. Once the banks migrated to the subprime area, there was little else that could be done to send housing prices higher.
I try to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like road kill and sell them when they've been polished up a bit.
Back in 2005 and 2006, I argued as forcefully as I could, in letters to clients of my investment firm, 'Scion Capital', that the mortgage market would melt down in the second half of 2007, causing substantial damage to the economy.
